What do you guys think about this ??
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/scorecasting/09/15/kelley.pulaski/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
I actually really ascribe to a lot of what this coach does. A teacher I am friends here at my school originally shot me a piece from "Scorecasting" and being very interested in advanced stats in general (especially when it comes to football, basketball and baseball), I was kinda floored by the numbers. But it did get me thinking and I came to three conclusions why to not punt and always onside kick the ball with my middle school team.
1.) In terms of punting, I find punting at the youth level extremely risky. Either a.) you're not going to get enough blocking and get the punt blocked or b.) you're going to punt the ball to their BEST player and chances are your punter is no Shane Lechler and its going to be a line drive punt, which is going to play to the punt returner's advantage. In my mind when it comes to punting and even punt return, it's something you really have to repeat over and over again to get good at. In my experience at middle school, the return team is always going to have an automatic advantage over the punt team because of the punter's limitations, so why give them that advantage? For us, we basically have an hour of practice, and hour and 15 minutes AT BEST three times a week. So, I would rather just spend the extra time to work on offense and defense rather than try to do a mediocre punt team which is just going to waste a play and put us at risk for a big score and a huge swing in momentum.
2.) In terms of going for it, yes people can say it can change momentum, but if your kind of instill it in your team that we're going for it every 4th, the team really does treat it like any other down. I went for it on Fourth and seven once and our opposing team was basically acting as if a trick play or pass was coming. They all backed off the line of scrimmage. What did I run? Just a wedge to the blocking back and he rumbled for 10 yards and the first down. I don't think even the kids really knew what down it was! The bottom line, if the kids know they are not going to punt, they are going to treat it more like another down and thus won't feel the heat (though the other team and coaches will treat it bigger because they practice punt).
3.) In terms of the onside, I think it mirrors the decision not to punt. Who is going to be returning the ball? Their fastest and best athletes. Chances are, you're kicker is not going to kick a high deep ball so the ball is going to be quick and if you're lucky, your guys are probably going to be little more than halfway to the kick returner at best. Why give one of their two best athletes that much of a running start? If anything, they probably will just return to the ball where you would onside kick to anyways. Furthermore, it's funny how some teams don't adjust to us always onside kicking. We did nothing but onside kick a whole game, and they still remained in their base return. Again, it's so uncommon and it really keeps the ball away from their best players, which in my mind, is what you want to do in special teams.
Of course, some would see this as unsportsmanlike because it goes against the grain but to me, we abide by this theory because a.) we want to maximize practice time and b.) we don't want to give up big score and onside kicking and going for it on fourth allows us to do this.
(And if you have read Dave Cisar's stuff, he actually abides by this Pulaski coach's theory, though not as extreme. Dave basically says in his book that you should probably just go for it on fourth down and he supports onside kicking every play, sporting many of the same reasons I do (in fact, I probably ripped off a couple of his).)
